Black Swans
being unpredictable, we
(rather than
naively try to
need to adjust to their existence
predict them). There are
do if we focus on antiknowledge, or what we do
so many things we can
other benefits, you can
not know.
set yourself
Among many
up to collect serendipitous Black Swans
lof the positive kind) by maximizing your exposure to them.
domains-such as scientific discovery
Indeed, in some
there is a
and venture capital investments_
disproportionate payoff from the unknown,
since you typically
have little to lose and plenty to gain from a rare event. We will see that,
contrary to social-science wisdom, almost no discovery, no technologies of
note, came from design and planning they were just Black Swans. The
strategy for the discoverers and entrepreneurs is to rely less on top-down
planning and focus
on maximum tinkering and recognizing opportunities
when they present themselves. So
and those of Adam Smith: the
I disagree with the followers of Marx
allow
reason free markets work is because they
ing
people to be lucky, thanks to
aggressive trial and error, not by giv-
rewards or “incentives” for skill. The
much as
strategy is, then, to tinker as
possible and
try to collect as many Black Swan
opportunities
as you can.

the black swan – taleb